The Union Metrics Blog

The King’s Tweets: Twitter predicts a big night for The King’s Speech at Oscars

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We’ve been tracking tweets about the Academy Awards for about a month. In that time, 213 thousand people have tweeted more than 417,000 times about the Oscars, reaching 59 million unique Twitter accounts and generating more than a billion impressions.

Over the past month, we’ve used a variety of methods to attempt to predict who will win the 83rd Academy Awards, based on tweets about the nominees. This post includes our third and final round of predictions. (See our first and second rounds here.) So, here are our final Academy Award winner predictions, based on the cumulative unique reach* of the nominees.

  • Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
  • Best Supporting Actor: Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)
  • Best Actress: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
  • Best Actor: Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
  • Best Picture: Black Swan The King’s Speech

Here’s the full list of the ten Best Picture nominees, sorted by reach.

While there are more tweets (and a higher reach) in the Black Swan Tracker than in any other film’s Tracker, this is one of the noisier Trackers we’re running. A number of tweets about Black Swan aren’t actually related to the film (many are related to the ballet or are generic references to the term “black swan”). Because of this, its position at the top of the list of Best Picture nominees is tenuous. As a comparison, a majority of the tweets in The King’s Speech Tracker are related directly to the film. Given that, we believe The King’s Speech to be the true front runner in the Best Picture race.

As a reference, here are our week-by-week comparisons.

We’ll be monitoring tweets as they come in during the awards show on Sunday, so follow @tweetreachapp on Twitter and check back here next week to see what Twitter thought of the Oscars and the award winners.

*Reach is the total number of unique Twitter accounts that received tweets about the Academy Awards. These data reflect cumulative reach since January 24, 2011. To measure reach, tweet volume and other stats, we set up a TweetReach Tracker for each Best Picture, Best Actor and Best Actress nominee.

Written by Jenn D

February 22nd, 2011 at 12:45 pm

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  1. [...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Jenn Deering Davis, TweetReach. TweetReach said: We've made our tweet-based Oscar predictions! Best Picture will go to The King's Speech. More here: [...]

  2. [...] blogged about here, have been tracking tweets about the Academy Awards for the past month, and have crunched that data into a report that shows exactly who the Twitter collective predicts to win. In that time, 170 thousand people [...]

  3. [...] week, we used a chunk of tweets about the Academy Awards to attempt to predict who would win the Oscars. Our main assumption was that the actors and film that generated the largest reach would be the [...]

  4. [...] seems to think so and last year they monitored the Twittersphere and predicted 4 out of the 5 big awards on Oscar nightbased on Tweets. The one they got wrong was Best [...]

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